Q1: One of the most significant disruptions of our time will come from emerging markets to developed countries via the adoption of account-to-account (A2A) payment systems that allow for real-time payments without going through a traditional bank or card network. In Brazil and India for example, products like PayPal's Pix and India's UPI are showing that very fast (almost instantaneous) payments (settlement) between bank accounts can be done successfully as well as creating substantial levels of financial inclusion by making it easy for people and businesses to exchange cash. As consumers in western countries continue to request and demand a quick and easy payment experience, they are beginning to "leapfrog" their current payment systems just as emerging market customers have done. This will begin to take effect over the next two years as the banks transition to being a non-visible entity (almost like a utility) by providing the infrastructure needed for seamless payment transactions through non-financial applications. However, the transformation to real time payments will disproportionately benefit those that work in the gig economy and those considered to have "thin" credit files given that their credit-worthiness is more often determined by behavioral data versus a traditional static credit bureau score. As western banks begin to implement new payment systems such as the FedNow network, those who will clearly benefit the most will be the lenders that use the new speed of fund availability with real-time payments as an opportunity to develop improved trust-based lending models for employees that do not fit into a traditional workday. Adopting a real-time payment model and moving away from multi-day settlement times and a legacy fee-laden business model may create psychological limitations for management as opposed to technical. The managing team will need to recognize that the transition to a high speed/high transparency environment creates the potential for not only taking on risk, but also losing customers as society expects similar standards between various markets worldwide and therefore, not having comparable access to other markets will ultimately result in missed opportunities or lost revenues for organizations that do not adopt to real-time payment systems and accept risk with the growth of their industry
The new trend in the financial technology industry that will soon begin to have a big effect on Western markets is called "embedded finance." Non-bank platforms are taking advantage of the framework provided by the Qatar Central Bank to develop new digital wallets and provide instant payments and financial services based on APIs directly to retailers, telecommunications companies, and logistics providers. The change is subtle yet very powerful. Financial services are now built into the apps people use for everyday transactions rather than needing to be accessed through a bank branch. There are many Western companies that have already experimented with "embedded finance," but the Gulf region has been faster to adopt this type of financial infrastructure through regulated digital payment systems and open API initiatives. I believe that by the end of the next two years, this type of finance will be viewed as a "utility" like water or electricity. Whereas, traditionally, banks have been thought of as a destination for people to go for their banking needs, banking is going to be looked at as a utility. Like plumbing is efficient, invisible, and unavoidable.
A major trend is the rise of alternative data-based underwriting tied to mobile behavior and cash flow, rather than traditional credit files. In emerging markets, this is enabling small-ticket lending and insurance for people with limited credit histories. Western lenders are likely to adopt the same approach as open banking coverage improves and more income becomes variable. Underwriting will increasingly rely on verified transaction streams, merchant sales and recurring obligations. This shift will shorten the time to decision and expand access for freelancers and newer immigrants. The key is to build consent-based data collection that clearly explains the value. Additionally, models should be created that can be challenged and corrected by the customer. The teams that pair automation with a human appeal path will likely succeed, as trust will determine who gets access to financial data.
A growing trend in emerging markets is wallet-led ecosystems, where cards are no longer the primary payment method. Users can pay, save, borrow, and manage bills all in one place. The strength of this system lies in the habit loop, as payments are made daily, and trust builds through constant use. As this grows, users develop stronger connections with the wallet app. Western markets will see this shift as wallets evolve from simple tap-to-pay to full financial operating tools. This will change how businesses acquire customers, moving from large one-time campaigns to continuous engagement. Companies should focus on customer education and provide in-app reminders to prevent abandonment. Turning a payment into a lasting relationship helps reduce churn and improve profitability.