Dear Sir or Madam, I am writing to share my thoughts on the changes in higher education, particularly the shift to precision enrollment and the use of AI. Also, I want to discuss the challenges of transferring credits for students who have attended multiple institutions and share my belief that institutions need to redefine their relationship with students. #1. Precision Enrollment There has been a major change in the way institutions recruit students. We are moving away from high-volume recruiting to precision enrollment. This change has occurred due in large part to the "demographic cliff" that we will be facing in 2026, which will force institutions to focus on the adult learner as well as the some-college-no-degree population. Therefore, the strategy has shifted from simply filling seats to maximizing the yield of non-traditional pathways. #2. Use of AI The use of AI should eliminate the administrative latency associated with transcript processing and initial triage. However, AI should not be used as the final authority in admissions or academic appeals. The potential for algorithmic bias within the high-stakes gatekeeping of admissions presents a liability for most institutions, and cannot be effectively managed at scale at this time. #3. Transfer Transparency Transfer transparency is now a key competitive driver. Research indicates that the average student loses approximately 40 percent of their credits when they transfer. Institutions that provide instant automated evaluations of transfer credit before students even submit an application will earn the trust of the swirling student population. #4. Human Connection Students build trust with institutions through a human-in-the-loop governance model. Students appreciate automated processes that enable them to receive immediate responses; however, they also need to have the assurance that the human side of the business is verifying the edge cases. It is essential that there is transparency about where AI begins and human ends to provide institutional credibility. #5. Breaking Down Silos We are experiencing the demise of the traditional silos that have existed between Admissions, the Registrar, and Advising. In order for institutions to experience operational success in 2026, they must create a data-sharing ecosystem that enables advisors to see transfer equivalencies real-time, rather than waiting several weeks for a manual audit. #6.
I have been in the business of running big campuses for 20 years and I can say first-hand that people build their confidence in the small details. AI will help to better route people, monitor queues, and predict demand; however, it should not be the only source of information for high-stakes situations. Schools should have an independent human reviewer conduct reviews at the point of service and maintain an audit trail so teams can provide justification of their actions. A transparency advantage can be gained by developing a unified dashboard for all functions of admissions, registration, and advising; and by creating clear service-level agreements (SLA) and proactively notifying students of the status of their requests. As a result, redundancy in processes will be minimized and the stakeholders will have increased confidence in the processes.
The pipeline of 18-year old high school graduates will decrease because graduates will peak in 2025 and thereafter trends downward for many years. The schools that emerge victorious will not supplement their lead generation through lead purchases, they will augment their entire funnel by providing faster assistance with the FAFSA, faster processing of transcripts and providing transparent policies surrounding transfers. Transfer activity is currently being utilized as a means of relieving pressure; transfer enrollment increased by 4.4% during fall of 2024, and transparency is the means by which to recruit students. Artificial intelligence should be utilized to scan the documents provided by prospective students to identify any missing items, and provide suggestions for what the next steps are. AI should not be used to determine admission, provide financial aid or grant college credit. Many prospective students will build trust in an institution based upon the ability of that institution to provide transparency in the decision making processes of the institution and allow the student to appeal any decisions made by the institution to a human being in a clean and clear manner.
By 2026, enrollment is not just a matter of marketing it is also a matter of throughput and as a result schools need to start behaving like high trust service teams, particularly given the impending cliff that is about to hit them. Students will not wait three days to get an answer to a transfer inquiry, they will just leave. AI should be used for triage, not for judgement calls. The use of AI to summarise files, draft messages and route files among the admissions team, registrar's office and academic advisors is appropriate. However, the ultimate decision on admission, credit transfer or exceptions must be a human being who is able to provide an explanation of the reasons for the decision. The degree to which students can see transparency related to transfer credit has become a competitive advantage in enrollment marketing with students being able to see "42 credits will transfer" prior to committing to enrolling therefore reducing friction and melt (students dropping out). The major vendors in this area are Transferology, Parchment, National Student Clearinghouse, and EAB-like advising solutions. Because of this, schools that have established and follow policies in a timely manner will be successful in transferring credit.
Higher education institutions have begun to narrow their recruitment focus and streamline the transitions/activities of students throughout their time at college in response to the demographic drop in enrollment (the so-called "demographic enrollment cliff"). Institutions are moving away from broad "one size fits all" approaches and instead target specific demographic segments (i.e., target adult learners/target transfer students) while improving clarity of credit measurement (e.g., increased transfer credit transparency), and providing clarity in length of time to graduate. Further, greater levels of transparency associated with transfer credit are emerging as a source of competitive advantage as students increasingly prioritize predictability and workforce alignment in their educational pursuits as opposed to simply the reputation or brand value of institutions. Institutions are transitioning to a more clearly defined set of pathways for students and utilizing expedited evaluation practices by developing stronger coordinating relationships among: Admissions Office, Registrar's Office, and Advising Office. The role of artificial intelligence is being used as a support function rather than a decision-maker and assisting institutions in streamlining inquiry processes, identifying bottlenecks in the student experience, and increasing internal collaboration among departments, while also maintaining human involvement in high stakes decision-making processes that impact student trust. The challenge for colleges/universities is to achieve a balance between automating routine processes, allowing institutional staff to focus on those interactions that require higher levels of judgment and empathy when working with students; thereby providing greater opportunities to develop relationships and build trust among students and departments. The key to successfully addressing the current demographic enrollment cliff will be the institutions which successfully align automation with the overall transparency associated with the various educational pathways offered, while ensuring that there is a clear alignment/connection to workforce outcomes through each pathway.
Due to the decrease of available transferring students, schools are now placing their priorities on managing student enrollment from start-to-finish as well as recruiting students. As a result, schools are focusing on reducing friction in the enrollment process and increasing speed at which decisions are made regarding whether or not a student will be accepted into an institution, particularly for transfer students. Furthermore, as many have cited uncertainty regarding transfer credits as being one of the main barriers for adult and mobile learners completing their degrees, transparency of transfer credit will be a major differentiating factor between institutions.Use of AI to automate processes can greatly increase efficiency in administering enrollment; however, institutions should not use AI to replace human decision-making, only to assist human decision-making. Artificial Intelligence has been proven effective in triaging application processing, identifying missing documentation in application packages and standardising communications. Final application decisions and complex application decisions must always be made by human staff members in order to maintain customer trust. Institutions that successfully combine automation, transparency and clear appeal processes will have the greatest likelihood of enhancing efficiency while providing students with confidence.